Export restrictions and trade in critical mineral green products for clean energy transition

Critical minerals—such as copper, nickel, rare earths, and lithium—are essential for clean energy technologies like electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels.

Their supply is highly concentrated in a few countries, making global trade vulnerable to disruptions. This paper examines the impact of export restrictions on these minerals and related products, using data from 2009–2022 and an event-study approach.

Export restrictions—such as bans, quotas, and licensing requirements—reduce trade flows significantly. On average, exports of critical mineral green products fall by 11.8% when restrictions are imposed. The effect is most severe for raw materials with high “relationship stickiness,” where switching suppliers is costly; trade in these products declines by about 30%. Finished products show smaller but immediate impacts, while intermediate goods are largely unaffected.

Policy implications are clear: restrictions on upstream raw materials can severely disrupt global supply chains, raise costs, and delay the green transition. Large economies implementing these measures wield disproportionate influence over global markets. Importing countries should diversify sourcing and invest in recycling to mitigate risks. Multilateral dialogue and transparency are critical to minimize distortions and ensure a stable supply of minerals vital for achieving net-zero goals.

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About the authors

Dr. Kumuthini Sivathas is an economist specializing in international trade and development. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Adelaide and a Master’s in Economics and Public Policy from the University of Queensland. She is currently a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Institute for International Trade (IIT), University of Adelaide, where her research focuses on deep trade agreements and the critical minerals trade.

Meng Yu Ngov is a PhD candidate in Economics at King’s College London. His research explores how trade policies, digital infrastructure, and industrial development shape firm performance, supply chains, and labor markets in developing economies. He holds a B.Com. in Economics and Finance from the University of Melbourne and an MSc in Economics from SOAS University of London.
 

Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). Neither the European Union nor EACEA can be held responsible for them