News: Working Papers
How is the ‘Business of Climate’ impacting the ‘Climate of Business’?
WORKING PAPER 19: The European Union’s Green Deal introduces the Deforestation Regulation and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) to ensure sustainable supply chains. These regulations pose challenges for exporters from Emerging Asia, especially smallholder producers, due to strict compliance and documentation requirements. Countries like Indonesia, India, and Malaysia are concerned about the economic burden and trade barriers these rules impose. While certification alignment could ease compliance, high costs remain a barrier. For a smooth transition, the EU needs to improve support mechanisms and foster greater collaboration with affected trading partners
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Implications of the EUDR on global palm oil supply chains
WORKING PAPER 18: From December 2024, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will require palm oil to come from sources not linked to deforestation. This creates challenges for suppliers, especially small ones, due to strict tracking and compliance rules. Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are concerned about these challenges. However, aligning with certification schemes like Malaysia's MSPO may help gain EU approval. The EUDR also classifies countries by deforestation risk, making it easier for low-risk nations to comply. For a smooth shift to deforestation-free trade, it's important to extend timelines, support small suppliers, and use local initiatives.
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The Impact of Due Diligence Legislation on International Trade and Business: An Analysis of Potential Trade-Offs
WORKING PAPER 17: As countries increasingly adopt due diligence legislation to promote human rights, labor standards, and environmental sustainability in global value chains, a complex dilemma arises. While these laws commendably aim to address moral and political issues in international trade, they may also impose significant costs on companies, potentially disincentivizing investment and trade. This study examines the impact of due diligence laws on international trade and business, analyzing some 60 cases.
Mapping networks of export credit for fossil and clean energy infrastructure
WORKING PAPER 16: Official Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) are pivotal in the global energy sector, investing billions annually in fossil fuel projects. They could significantly boost the energy transition by reducing risks in large projects and supporting climate finance goals. Our working paper analyzes ECA financing in Asia-Pacific, highlighting integrated fossil fuel lending across diverse nations without clear geopolitical divides, unlike the fragmented clean energy network dominated by a "China vs. the rest" pattern. To enhance ECAs' climate contributions, the study suggests ending fossil fuel financing, easing clean energy project requirements, increasing renewable energy funding, and expanding ECAs' roles via blended finance. The IEA stresses ECAs are crucial for achieving net zero by 2050.
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The Value of Cross-border Digital Transmissions to MSMEs in Indonesia: Implications for Participation in the WTO E-commerce Moratorium
WORKING PAPER 15: Cross-border digital transmissions are crucial components of the global trading system. Currently, WTO members do not impose custom duties on inward flows, in-keeping with the WTO’s temporary moratorium. However, it is likely this moratorium will expire, and key members may move to impose taxes in the future. As our latest Working Paper attests, in Indonesia’s case this would amount to significant self-harm.
Carbon Border Tax: How the CBAM could hold great potential for Australian Business
WORKING PAPER 14: Soon the Australian government’s Carbon Leakage review will recommend whether the country should adopt a border carbon tax, or not. In our latest Working Paper Dr Susan Stone sets out her reasoning for why we should.
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Standing up to Chinese economic coercion: Is Australia a model of economic resilience?
WORKING PAPER 13
Contrary to some prior research findings, the economic costs to Australia of China’s economic coercion are high. Unfortunately, while the bilateral mood music is improving resetting relations may not be possible, nor likely, as both countries pursue economic diversification from the other. Yet there is much to be gained from a calibrated shift in trade and investment relations, notwithstanding the hostile geopolitical environment. Australia needs to establish a 10-15 years strategy for where it wants the relationship to be, and like every other country in the region, negotiate its differences with China.
Measuring diversification in Australian Goods Exports, 2001-2021: Policy and Technical Considerations
WORKING PAPER 12
China’s blocking of sales of Australian commodities has led to increased interest in diversification of Australia’s exports, to lessen dependence on the Chinese market. Australia’s export diversifications was increasing in the second half of the 21st century, with the Australian government seeking new markets in the emerging economies. However, export concentration, both geographically and in products and commodities, has increased since the start of this century. This paper measures the geographical export concentration and the product concentration of Australian exports to China and the World over the previous 20 years, and the policy implications.
The future of EU trade policy and strategies in a militarised environment
WORKING PAPER 11
China’s economic rise has transformed the international trade system. Furthermore, given its divergent economic model China is challenging the global economic order in ways that previous Asian competitors never did. In response to systemic rivalry and an increasingly tense international environment, the EU seeks to build more “strategic autonomy” from the United States, its main security benefactor. Economically, the EU policy of Open Strategic Autonomy seeks to maintain openness to trade, while developing tools for dealing with coercive and unfair trade practices. This paper identifies the key elements of this policy, as well as the risks it holds for European economic liberalism.
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Desktop analysis of agricultural subsidies and environmental impacts
WORKING PAPER 10
There is broad agreement that much of the government support provided to agriculture today is environmentally harmful. This report explores the impacts of production and trade-distorting domestic support in agriculture on climate (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions) and the environment (i.e., water, biodiversity, and land degradation). Global reform is needed, however agriculture is a highly sensitive sector, one that is crucial for national food security. Gaining momentum for policy change can be difficult. Successful policy reform requires coalition building. A sustained evidence-based networking initiative that incorporates active public engagement and global coalition building should be developed on a priority basis.
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